Whether in good or bad times, King Football rules the world - even online. In spring 2020, 29 clubs from the 1st and 2nd Bundesliga suddenly launched a virtual "Bundesliga Home Challenge". With 116 games spread over four matchdays, the Home Challenge was short but exciting.
In addition to professional footballers from the respective clubs and the refereeing squad, eSport athletes from the clubs as well as other people from the clubs' environment were also allowed to compete on the console to compete in FIFA 20. The tournaments were held exclusively on the Playstation 4 in the so-called 85er mode. This means that all teams had the same game strength of 85. Each game lasted around 25 minutes, which was divided into two matches as singles. Although the "Bundesliga Home Challenge" did not go into any official ranking, it was a welcome opportunity for many tipsters to bet on their favorites. However, the results came as a surprise to many. Four clubs, namely TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, SV Darmstadt 98, FC Augsburg and Sport-Club Freiburg, remained undefeated. Instead of the Bundesliga's usual average of 3.21 goals per game, the virtual leather ended up in the net 480 times in total, despite the brevity of the encounters. The undisputed top scorer at the end of the challenge was Freiburg's central defender Nico Schlotterbeck, who sent Hertha Berlin's left-back Maximilian Mittelstädt packing with 11-1 on the second matchday.
Tipsters who relied on their experience in the regular Bundesliga quickly learned that the Home Challenge required a rethink. The same applied to the bookmakers. This was made clear above all by a clever gambler who found
Such bets are the stuff of legends, but with a little common sense, good results can also be achieved with normal Bundesliga bets on matches that are traditionally played on the pitch in 90 minutes. However, more should be based on common sense than pure gut feeling, even if it hurts the fan heart not to bet on the victory of one's own club.
The most important rule is that only sums should be bet that are easy to bear. It is also recommended to use only a fraction of the available pot for each bet. A cooling-off period after a loss makes it easier to resist the temptation to make up for lost ground with daring bets. But even in a lucky streak, it should be noted that the euphoria does not suddenly take over and tempt one to take too great risks.
Although there is always some luck involved in football games, nevertheless tips can be given based on solid probabilities. For this it is first necessary to study the past form of the clubs. Football results are described as fitness plus chance, and although chance cannot be calculated, at least the physical and mental condition of the teams can be examined. With each game there are new insights into the individual kickers, but also the entire eleven. If a team has an outstanding player who regularly scores goals or provides reliable assists, this player is the key figure. If he is out because of injury, the entire team's performance often changes.
Home wins are significantly more likely than away wins in matches between teams of equal strength. Each team also has opponents against which it unexpectedly struggles. This is even true for a team like FC Bayern Munich, the record champions. The bogey team of the Bavarians is Borussia Mönchengladbach. Even though the Foals have not contested the title with the Bavarians since the 1970s, they have nevertheless been surprisingly successful against the record champions. Since the 2012/2013 season, they have remained unbeaten in eight encounters with Bayern, winning five and drawing three - a result that the other Bundesliga clubs can only dream of. In addition, contrary to all probability, four of the eight matches in which the Foals have picked up points have been played in the Bayern stadium.
Even if encounters from long ago with a squad long since retired and under a different coach have little meaning for today's predictions, the statistics so far are definitely worth a look for punters. If a team loses eight out of ten times against an equally strong opponent, the probability is great that the pattern will continue. If a team fluctuates between victory, defeat and draw, it is worth taking a closer look at the individual players to see if the results can be linked to the squad's lineup or individual kickers.
In betting, victory, draw or defeat is usually bet on, but combo bets usually bring much higher odds, but are also much more difficult, because all tips have to be right. However, for most fans, common sense, nerves of steel and a cool head on the pitch and in the stands are also part of the passion for sport.
